Lebanon on the Verge of the Syrian Model: Israel Ties the Establishment of an Aerial and Ground Buffer Zone to Hezbollah’s Disarmament

By Marlene Khalife – Masdar Diplomacy

In a development unprecedented in decades, Syrian and Israeli sources revealed the imminent signing of a security agreement between Syria’s transitional president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, under U.S. sponsorship. The agreement includes the establishment of a demilitarized zone in southern Syria, the expansion of the existing buffer zone, as well as special arrangements guaranteeing Israeli control over the strategic Mount Hermon summit and the protection of the Druze community in Sweida.

Washington has framed this step as an “American achievement,” marking a significant shift in the trajectory of the Syrian crisis and broader regional relations.

Against the backdrop of these security proposals set to be implemented in Syria, attention has turned to Lebanon, where the same model is being floated. The fundamental obstacle, however, remains Hezbollah’s weapons, which have yet to be dismantled. Israel views the forthcoming Syrian-Israeli agreement as a mirror of what it seeks to achieve in Lebanon, but the execution of any similar model there is directly tied to the removal of armed groups Israel considers an existential threat.

In this context, a source well-informed on Western policy told Masdar Diplomacy , when asked whether such an agreement could be replicated in Lebanon: “Indeed, some similar proposals have been put forward regarding Lebanon — not in the exact same form, but according to the same model being applied to neighboring countries. Therefore, everything hinges on resolving the issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament, which is the gateway to any such changes and the core issue today.”

Meanwhile, Western diplomatic circles — including a European ambassador and a United Nations source — told Masdar Diplomacy  in private conversations that Israel shows no intention of withdrawing from the areas it occupies in southern Lebanon. Rather, it seeks to entrench a buffer zone encompassing at least 22 border villages, in addition to imposing an aerial umbrella over all of Lebanon. The UN source added that even if Hezbollah were to declare it had fully surrendered its weapons, Israel would not acknowledge it officially, since its ultimate objective is to consolidate comprehensive aerial and security control over Lebanon.

On September 17, the U.S.-based website Geopolitical Futures reported, citing various accounts, that Israel had presented Syria with a proposal for a new security agreement. The plan includes the creation of a no-fly zone over the territory between Damascus and the Israeli border, and the expansion of the demilitarized zone in southern Syria by two kilometers (1.2 miles).

In the areas adjacent to the buffer zone, police and internal security forces would be permitted, but not Syrian military troops. In return, Israel would withdraw from territories it occupied following the collapse of the Syrian government last December, while maintaining its presence on Mount Hermon. According to reports, Israeli and Syrian officials are scheduled to meet in Baku on Thursday to discuss the proposal. It was also reported that a meeting had been planned in London between Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani.

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